Forecasting earthquakes

We have a new publication in Nature Communications Earth & Environment on a method towards forecasting earthquakes in Iceland: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01852-3. This is a huge step forward in science if this method can be applied elsewhere in high-risk areas of earthquakes above magnitude 5. So far we know that the method works with high probability of forecasting earthquakes M > 5 in Northern Iceland. However, we hope that groundwater monitoring similar to what we have carried out in Iceland will be tested in other countries and regions. This new article marks the end of a groundwater monitoring project initiated by Professor Alasdair Skelton at Stockholm University back in 2002. Both Erik and I have been highly involved in the project for more than a decade. Erik have been involved in the geophysical methods and seismology related to the earthquakes whereas I have been in charge of the groundwater chemistry analysis, geochemical modelling and interpretations plus supervision of PhD student Margareta Andrén at Stockholm University. All praise to Alasdair Skelton for never giving up on this project despite many obstacles and lack of funding. We met a lot of scepticism along the way but sometimes the crazy ideas are the groundbreaking ideas. Future research and data collection by other research groups will eventually show us whether Iceland was a unique case or not. For the safety of human lives and livestock, my sincerest hope is that this is a worldwide applicable method!